So, I put up a post about why I was looking at polls rather than prediction markets the other day. And now, the prediction markets seem to be overreacting. PredictWise currently puts Trump's chances at 68%. Before Nevada, they put it at around 53%. That doesn't make mathematical sense. They put Trump's chances of winning Nevada at roughly 90%. So, once that is out of the way, Trump's chances should go up to .53/.9=.59, or 59%. For the math geeks, that is called "Bayesian updating."
Trump is clearly the favorite, and the ranks of Type A Trump denialists are shrinking, but we always need to leave room for weird shit to happen. Either 68% is an overestimate, 53% was an underestimate, or a 90% chance of winning Nevada was an underestimate. I think there was a little of each going on, but people are finally coming around to acknowledging that Trump is winning.