Saturday, February 20, 2016

The South Carolina primary

Lest anyone think the race is over, only two states have voted so far. South Carolina votes today. Funny thing, but it looks like the betting odds have narrowed on PredictWise. Trump's chances still seem asymptotically bounded by 50%, and Rubio seems to have gained, possibly in the wake of Nikki Haley's endorsement.  Yet, the investors are still giving Trump an 86% chance of winning South Carolina, and he still leads in every poll. RealClearPolitics shows one outlier poll with Trump holding only a 3 percentage point lead over Rubio, but we should always look at polling averages, as the investors seem to be doing. So, if Trump wins South Carolina, maintains his lead in Nevada and wins there, remind me again why Trump has less than a 50% chance of winning the nomination?  Oh, right. Trump denialism.  This ain't over yet.  If Rubio pulls off an upset, Trump will start sinking again.  If Trump wins, though, we might finally see Trump's betting odds stay north of 50% for more than a quick stretch.

What if it is just really close?  Then, all those Republican muckety-mucks who haven't endorsed yet might chalk Rubio's gain up to Haley and rush to endorse.  Now, that would be interesting to watch.

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