Saturday, February 20, 2016

Trump wins South Carolina, still not winning according to everyone

Well, The Donald just won South Carolina.  He has won New Hampshire and South Carolina-- two out of three states that have voted so far, he has maintained a nationwide polling lead throughout his entire candidacy, has unlimited money, and endorsements haven't seriously lined up behind any of his opponents.  Yes, Rubio is in the lead, but compare his lead to Clinton's, and you'll see what a real endorsement lead looks like.  And yet, PredictWise still has his betting odds below 50%.  Remind me again why Trump isn't favored to win?  Oh, right.  He's Trump, and the rules don't apply to him.  Like Desmond, on Lost.  Well, if the rules don't apply, then maybe we should look at current empirical evidence rather than models that are being debunked as I type.

Trump may still lose, but anyone putting his chances below 50% right now is guilty of Type A Trump denialism.

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