Tuesday, March 8, 2016

By the way, Trump is going to win more delegates today

A few more contests are today, and you can check the most recent polling here.  Michigan is voting today.  Trump leads there by an average of 12 points.  Mississippi votes today.  We only have one recent poll, but it had Trump up by 24 points.  Idaho votes today, and interestingly, while the only poll has Trump ahead by 11 points, betting odds give an advantage to Cruz.  Rubio?  Who's that?  Kasi...  ch?  ck?  Are those people still running?

Will Trump denialists change their tune when Trump improves his delegate lead today?  Of course not.  Really, a brokered convention might happen!  Or, you know, aliens, or something.  Trump denialism can never fail.  We can only fail it.

What has to happen to change things?  Trump has to underperform in Michigan and Mississippi.  Really, though, if Trump is going to lose the nomination, we are getting past the point at which a non-Trump can turn things around with an unexpectedly strong second-place finish.   If Trump is going to lose, someone has to beat him.

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