Tuesday, March 15, 2016

The strangeness of the Kasich campaign

John Kasich is highly unlikely to be the Republican nominee.

OK, yes, I said the same thing about Trump last summer, but we're in the middle of actual, real-life voting.

The premise of the Kasich campaign right now is that a victory in his home state today, which would be his only victory so far, will breathe life into his campaign.  Let's get realistic.  Here is the delegate count.  Trump currently has 469.  Kasich has 63.  This is an order of magnitude difference.  And half of the states have already voted.

Kasich will not take a delegate lead over Trump.  He won't even overtake Cruz, who currently has 370 delegates.

The premise of the Kasich argument is that if Trump doesn't get an outright majority of the delegates, some sort of unspecified magic will happen at the convention, leading them to give the nomination to the guy who came in third in the delegate count.

John Kasich will probably win his home state.  Will he get a bump?  Not much of one.  Why?  It's his bloody home state!  Rubio will be forced out tomorrow after getting crushed in his home state, but a candidate is presumed to win his own home state, so no, it isn't sponge-worthy, I mean, bump-worthy.  And I don't see how a process plays out that gives the nomination to the guy who comes in third in the delegate count, behind Trump and Cruz.

Remember, Trump's supporters will riot, and then he'll run as an independent.  The party knows it.  If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Illinois today, which is highly likely, Kasich gets nothing by winning his home state.  Unless you buy the underpants gnome theory of electioneering.

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