Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Today is probably the last chance to stop Trump

It is worth paying attention to the Democratic side today, mostly because the polls were so far off in Michigan, but I just can't stop talking about Trump.  So, here are the numbers for today.

Kasich is leading in Ohio, and he will probably win here.  His victory will be written off as a home state thing, he won't win anywhere else, and his presence in the campaign right now serves only the purpose of giving Trump denialists a candidate to delude themselves about.  The convention won't take the nomination away from Trump and give it to a guy who can't win any state besides his home state.  For what it's worth, I gave an interview last year suggesting that Kasich would be the fallback candidate if Bush, Rubio and Walker stumbled.  Hey, look at that!  Maybe I know a thing or two.

Trump is way ahead in Florida.  Rubio probably drops out tomorrow and backs Kasich.  (Lower probability of backing Cruz, but that could happen too).

Trump will win North Carolina, and he has a small but consistent lead in Illinois.  Not much polling on Missouri, so we'll see.

Bottom line:  if Trump wins everything but Ohio, the scenarios to defeat him just get even more absurd.  Kasich will stay in the race as the establishment figure, Cruz will stay because he is second in the delegate count and unable to back an establishment candidate, and with more winner-take-all contests coming up, Trump becomes nearly impossible to stop.

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