Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Your 2016 nominees: Hillary vs Trump

It is basically over.  Going into yesterday's contests, we had one question on the Democratic side.  Would the polls be as far wrong in another big state as they were in Michigan?  Nope.  Of the four states that are done counting, Hillary won all four.  Michigan was weird, and probably a one-off.  Hillary is the nominee.  Bernie's done, folks.  Stick a fork in him.

On the Republican side, I was wrong about one thing.  I thought Rubio might wait until this morning to drop out.  He dropped out last night.  Trump clobbered him in his home state.  Ain't no comin' back from that.

Trump won Florida, Illinois and North Carolina.  As predicted, Kasich won his first state-- Ohio, but it's too late.  We are more than half way through the process, and Kasich has one state.  Yesterday, I suggested that going from a single state victory to a coronation at a brokered convention was basically the South Park underpants gnome theory of electioneering.  Step 1) Lose every state but your home state.  Step 2) Mystery step.  Step 3) Victory at the convention!  If Kasich can just figure out that mystery step, he'll be golden!

Here's the basic situation, folks.  Kasich has won one state.  His home state.  The shock would have been a loss.  Lose your home state and you're in Rubio territory.  Cruz has won:  Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, Maine, Alaska, Kansas, Idaho and Wyoming.  What do these states have in common?  They are either rural, or Cruz's home state.  New York hasn't voted yet.  Neither has New Jersey, or a bunch of other eastern seaboard states.  Who do you think will win there?  How about California?

Trump hasn't lost his lead in the national polls since that brief, tiny blip of a Ben Carson surge last year.  Trump doesn't lose unless the polls shift on a massive scale.  Nothing has moved them in any significant way so far.  Not fighting with the Pope, not escalating violence at Trump's rallies, not an endorsement from the KKK, not fighting with Fox News...  Shall we go on?

Oh, but now Rubio is out!  Rubio will endorse someone else, and finally the party will rally around a non-Trump!  Cuz, ya know, Rubio has so much sway among Republican voters.

The premise that those who haven't voted for Trump will never vote for Trump is a logical fallacy. Once a winner becomes clear, party faithful tend to rally around the clear winner.  That's Trump.  Just ask him!  He'll tell you!

2016 disclaimer:  everything could go out the window because 2016 is batshit crazy.

What would it take for the intrinsic weirdness of this year to defeat Trump?  Remember that old chestnut from Edwin Edwards about what it would have taken for him to lose?  Being caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.  Well, for Trump, maybe being caught in bed with his daughter.  He isn't subtle about lusting after her.

And while we're on the topic, remember how I keep bashing that lousy book, The Party Decides?  Jonathan Bernstein has always been an even bigger believer in the model than the book's own authors.  Yesterday, Bernstein wrote this.  The Party Decides is dead.  Good riddance.  That book was clearly nonsense even before this year.  When they lose their high priest, it's over.

For today's music, there's only one choice.  Sorry, it's the obvious one.  Just replace "mother" with "daughter."


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