Sunday, April 17, 2016

Checking in on the Republican contest

For quite a while now, I have thought that the Republican nomination was Trump's to lose.  The contested convention strategy always struck me as a reach at best, and it wasn't until two weeks ago that I saw a plausible contested convention scenario.  And even that was a borderline conspiracy theory (see here).  Basically, I've been seeing a nearly inevitable Trump victory for a while now.

Then something interesting happened.  Or, rather, nothing happened.  By "nothing," I mean that we haven't had a large state contest since March 15.  Without large state victories by Trump to keep the story going, the political commentariat shifted back to some good, old-fashioned Type A Trump Denialism.  Trump's not winning!  That means he's losing!  Contested convention!  Everyone freak out over Wisconsin!

No, he wasn't winning because no large states were voting.

Well, that's about to end.  New York votes this Tuesday, and, um, Trump will win.  Big.  A week later, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island.  In every state for which we have polls, Trump is ahead.  And his lead in the national polls has stabilized.  As you can see here, Trump's lead in the latest polls is solidly back in the double digits.

As I warned repeatedly, the contested convention scenario doesn't work if Trump is leading in both the delegates and in the polls.  The only way it works without burning down my city in July, and possibly the entire Republican Party, is if the conventioneers can tell everyone that the voters got buyers' remorse, as evidenced by Trump's drop in the polls.  No drop, no contested convention.

And this is why Trump's odds over at PredictWise are back to 63% and rising.  And even that probably has a hint of Trump denialism to it.

Oh, and voters don't get buyers' remorse because voters aren't consumers.  I wrote a book about that!

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