Friday, April 1, 2016

Donald Trump Campaign Deathwatch

Oh, no!  Donald Trump is doomed!  Haven't you heard?  The Republicans will give the nomination to Ted Cruz at the convention!

Reality check.  If you head over to the prediction markets, you will see that estimates of Donald Trump's chances are dropping.  They are hovering just over 60%.  Yes, 60 > 50, but that is a significant drop.  And I find it implausible.

Let's revisit a basic premise of Type A Trump Denialism.  (Time to resurrect that one!).  Trump, the line goes, hits a ceiling of somewhere around 1/3 of the Republican electorate.  Thus, once every non-Trump collapses, the last standing non-Trump will crush The Donald.

Now, let's head on over to the polling averages.  As I mentioned last time, the key to pulling off a convention block is that it doesn't work if Trump is first in the polls.  As you can see at RealClearPolitics, Cruz's numbers have gone up.  But so have The Donald's!  He is currently riding at just over 40%.  Remember that 35% or so ceiling he supposedly had?  Nonexistent.  Trump is 10 points ahead of Cruz, and his trend is upwards, not downwards.  If he crosses 50%, that's it.  Game over, man, game over.

The Republicans cannot block Trump from getting the nomination when he is riding first in the polls and delegates.  Well, they can, but they would blow the party up.  Those who now have positions of power within that structure have no incentive to blow up said structure.

Can Trump lose?  This year, anything can happen.  But, watch the national polls.

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