Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Trump lost Wisconsin, but his California lead looks more solid

As expected yesterday, Donald Trump lost Wisconsin to Ted Cruz.  And sometimes markets work!  If you head on over to PredictWise, you will see that Trump's betting odds blipped down a little, and then rebounded to around 53%.  Why?  The Wisconsin loss was already "priced into" his betting odds, so aside from the blip, the markets are where they stood two days ago.

Remember, though, that Trump's delegate lead will be very hard for Cruz to overcome, and without that, a contested convention strategy will make it look like Trump got robbed.  That would be bad for my city this coming July.

Then there is Trump's nationwide polling lead.  The only way for Cruz to get the nomination and not make it look like outright theft is if Cruz overtakes Trump in the polls.  That way, the convention is responding to the voters' version of buyers' remorse.  Could it happen?  Sure.  Cruz is on a big upswing, but Trump is over 40%, and within sight of 50%.  A tough hill to climb, but doable.

On the plus side for Trump, I recently made a big note about a California poll with Trump only up by 1 point.  Never make too much of one poll, though!  Now that we have another more recent poll, that 1 point lead looks more like a blip.  Here's the current state of the California race.  There's plenty of time for those numbers to shift, though.

What does Cruz need to do to get the nomination?  He needs to close the nationwide polling gap, and make a strong showing, if not outperforming Trump in California.  Did I mention that's June 7?  We've got a ways to go.  Of course, as I wrote recently, the Republicans might decide to stick Cruz with a worthless 2016 nomination just to keep him out of 2020!

By the way, don't think about voters' remorse like buyers' remorse.  Voters aren't consumers, and elections aren't markets.  Hey, I wrote a book about that!

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