Friday, July 22, 2016

And finally something goes smoothly at the RNC

After the Ted Cruz incident, I wondered whether the Cruz supporters and other Trump detractors would respond by heckling Trump, or otherwise trying to embarrass him during his big moment.  Instead, something finally went right.  No plagiarism charges (yet...), no other disasters.  Just a normal speech.

Well, except that the text got leaked hours ahead of schedule, demonstrating once again how amateurish the campaign is.

But, a few possibilities on why the Cruz people and other neverTrumpers didn't heckle.

1)  Conversion.

2)  Resignation.

3)  Fear, possibly as a consequence of the Cruz incident.

4)  They just weren't there.

We can go through them briefly.  1 seems unlikely.  People don't tend to change their minds.  Not the committed ones, anyway.  2 is a reasonable possibility, as is 3.  What I hadn't considered was 4.  There were delegates in attendance, sure, but the total number of delegates was just north of 2000.  The point of the "conscience" thing is that if they had voted their conscience, it might have been for Cruz, but the rest of the stadium was filled with people who showed up for the Trump convention.

So, I go back to Tuesday's post.  Trump didn't acknowledge his past apostasies, giving the distrustful conservatives a reason to heckle.  He didn't go stream-of-consciousness, like he does on the stump, demonstrating the impulsiveness that makes Mark Kirk-types not trust him, and while David Duke loved the speech, Trump didn't put Paul Ryan in the position of having to denounce it again.

Cruz rolled the dice and lost.

So did Robert Axelrod!  Should I say that this one is political science taking it on the chin, or economics?  Sometimes it's a fine line.  Anyway, never a dull moment these days!

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