Monday, August 1, 2016

A quick note on the symmetry of convention polling bounces

Initially, I expected neither candidate to get much of a polling bounce from their conventions, since both HRC and Trump are known quantities.  A week ago, it was clear that I was wrong, since Trump got a bounce, and I admitted it.  I then said that we should expect HRC to get the same, returning things to the pre-convention equilibrium because, if I had been wrong about Trump, I must have been wrong in the same way about HRC.

Yup.  The polls are in, and HRC is getting the same bounce.  See for yourself.  Her lead is already back up to 2.2% on average over at RealClearPolitics.  Ah, symmetry.



    What symmetry?

    1. When I posted this, RCP put her lead at 2.2% on average, which was exactly where it had been before the RNC. That's symmetry.

      As the polls keep coming in, HRC's numbers are settling a bit higher. Right now, her lead is, on average, 4.4%, which is around where it had been before it started to sink in the pre-convention Trump mini-surge. That's still symmetry. If she goes higher than that, I'll call it asymmetric. That CNN poll with her up 9 points? If those numbers become normal, then I'll call it asymmetric.