Sunday, August 21, 2016

Checking in on Florida

We've got state-level polling, people!  (Slapping the inside of the elbow like a junkie).

For Florida, at least, we've got a bunch over at RealClearPolitics.  And as I've been saying, if Clinton is ahead nationally by as much as she has been, we don't need to obsess as much about the state-level polling.  That doesn't mean I won't.  I just means I don't need to.

We've got six polls with August data for Florida.  All put Clinton ahead.  RCP average, 4.5% lead for Clinton.  Other poll aggregators will use unnecessarily complicated algorithms, but that's just statistical guitar-face (I'm looking at you, Nate Silver).  A Trump victory without Florida is... implausible.

Add to that the fact that Virginia looks like it is almost a lock for Clinton and the presidential race is looking more and more like Trump needs a terrorist attack, economic collapse, or some other Putin-engineered thingamajig.

So that deck chair thing I addressed yesterday?  Yeah.  Ohhhh, pretty iceberg...

Really, though, without Florida?  Pack it up, Donald.

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