Friday, September 30, 2016

Some post-debate polling in Florida

One more quick observation.  As we wait on national polling, we have a post-debate poll from Florida.  Mason-Dixon has Clinton up by 4 in a poll of 820 "likely voters" done between the 27th and the 29th.  That puts her RealClearPolitics average in Florida at a 1.2 point lead over Trump.  That's a slight increase in her average.  Oh, and Trump is still digging in on the Machado thing.  It is still too early to tell how much of a bump Clinton gets from the debate, but like Mr. Garrison, Trump is doing everything possible to hand her a victory.


  1. Don't forget the new numbers in MI(+7) and NH (+7).
    Nailing down NH and MI really only leaves CO as the last state for a 272 EC firewall. Trump has never even tied in PA, but CO has been polling way more Trump-friendly than I expected. Trump has been up in more than a few polls there (though the average favors Clinton).

    But, a post-debate FL poll showing +4 is pretty consistent with the idea that she won the debate. In Trump's case, losing "the debate" also includes the coverage afterwards (as it would for any candidate), but Trump then goes and makes it worse himself.

    1. Have you ever understood why people keep calling PA and MI swing states? They go Dem, so I never even bother to look at them. Hence, I missed that. On CO, though, RCP has Trump up there by .5. Maybe the Dems will just be too stoned to show up.

      And, what, no comment on Mr. Garrison?

    2. Wish I could. Started to watch it the other night, when I realized that it was keeping with last season's bit with continuity from episode to episode. So, right off the bat they say "Cartman" and I was confused. And, because Comedy Central REFUSES to flag new vs repeat episodes of South Park, my DVR in just one week has recorded over the new one from the week before with 5 reruns from 2am.

      Same thing happened with 24: if you miss AN episode, it really makes tuning back in unrewarding. Great for streaming; terrible for a broadcast network.

      People still kinda refer to MO as a swing state (though that's mostly fading). I get PA: Trump pulled within a point there, and people's dominant frames are "this is about downscale whites, and look: poor white trash!" MI? The BEST I can figure is that people think "auto industry=out of work white people." It has NEVER been close this entire cycle--RCP +5, 538 +4.8.

      RCP is messed up on CO: expand to all the polls, and you'll see a blue state. Plus, huge Johnson share, and I still figure that she gets more of those folks than Trump will.

    3. Too bad. Basically, Mr. Garrison is running for president as Trump, trying to lose, and Clinton is such an incompetent, programmed hack that Garrison can't manage to lose.

      Anyway, the MO thing is a total mystery to me. RCP isn't bothering to classify it as a swing state anymore.

      However, I just noticed NV. New Suffolk poll there has Clinton up by 6 in the post debate timeframe!