Thursday, September 22, 2016

The 2016 electoral map

OK, we might as well shift things to the 2016 electoral map.  Yes, Clinton is maintaining a narrow lead in the nationwide polls, but the popular vote and a used kleenex are worth a used kleenex.  Here is where an overabundance of caution at RealClearPolitics puts the map now.  They give Clinton a reasonably solid 200 electoral votes to Trump's 164.  You need 270 for a victory.  In the toss-up category, they still leave Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and one district of Maine, which has a screwy system that would let Trump get one electoral vote if he wins one congressional district there.

Time for realism.  Some of these states aren't really toss-ups.  We call them toss-ups because the polls are relatively close, but they are historically consistent.  Republicans always get delusions that they might win, for example, Pennsylvania, but they never do.  Same with Michigan, and while Wisconsin is shaky for the Democrats right now, history is on their side at the presidential level.  If Trump wins Wisconsin, he's winning Ohio and Florida too, and Wisconsin is unnecessary.  Virginia is probably solid for Clinton at this point, which was the point of Kaine.  Colorado is moving towards solidly Democratic.

Arizona and Nevada are slipping from being solidly Republican states, but if Trump loses those, he's losing Florida and Ohio, and neither Arizona nor Nevada are pivotal.

North Carolina?  Close.  Trump has a narrow lead in the latest polls.  Add that to Ohio and Florida as a new key swing state to watch.

Iowa?  New Hampshire?  That district in Maine?  Maybe in play, but chump change.

So, we're still watching the same old stuff.  Ohio, Florida and now North Carolina.  But, Trump has a higher hurdle.

So let's do the math.  RCP has Clinton with a base score of 200 electoral votes.  Pennsylvania and Michigan would be historically normal, and currently within the polls.  That puts her at 236.  Add Wisconsin, which would be historically normal and within the polls.  246.  Virginia?  Polls + Tim Kaine = 259 electoral votes.  Clinton needs eleven more to clinch it.  Ohio alone would do it.  Florida alone would do it.  North Carolina alone would do it.  Colorado plus another state would do it.

Colorado plus that extra district in Maine would put her at 269, and an electoral college tie, sending it to the House of Representatives!

1 comment:

  1. Your fucking state is looking bad.

    But, it's looking like New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado will combine to be the firewall.

    I took those 200, added PA, MI, WI to the good guys. Then, CO&VA&NH do it. I don't like the chances in NV.

    Silver currently has NH as being the last state to put the good guys over the top. I could very easily see a 273-265 EC.