Friday, October 28, 2016

A quick check on the electoral college

For all of my Nate Silver-bashing, it is still worth the occasional check on the status of the electoral college.  Remember, the structure of the electoral college system is such that it exaggerates popular vote leads, so unless the popular vote is divided narrowly, you can pretty much focus on whoever is leading nationally.  That's Clinton.

Still, the map has gotten interesting.  At RCP, Clinton has enough states leaning Democratic to get her over the 270 electoral vote threshold, except for that weirdness in Pennsylvania.  Her polling lead is down to just five points there, but the Democrats consistently pull out victories at the presidential level there.  It is worth noting that Clinton's five point lead in Pennsylvania is larger than Trump's 4.7 point lead in Texas.  Yes, you read that right.  Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania is larger, on average, than Trump's lead in Texas.  Trump will win Texas, Clinton will win Pennsylvania, and that pulls her over the 270 electoral vote threshold.  Unless something very, very strange is going on.

Yes, the electoral college still magnifies popular vote leads, and Clinton has one.  With 11 days to go, it gets ever harder to see how Trump wins, unless we are looking at the greatest polling failure ever.

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