Tuesday, October 11, 2016

A warning on polls

Trump is basically toast.  His chances of winning aren't absolutely zero.  By definition, nothing is statistically impossible, and we cannot completely rule out a total economic collapse or 9/11-style attack, which might overwhelm even Trump's status as the worst presidential nominee ever.  But, let's not read too much into the immediate polls.

Take a look at RealClearPolitics.  Yikes.  A 14 point lead in the NBC poll for Clinton.  Will that hold?  Probably not.  Things will probably level out.  Probably.  In order for a lead that big to hold, we need major defections or big abstentions on the Republican side.  Possible?  Sure.  Likely?  No.

Then again, we could also see far more stuff come out.  With Trump, there's always the chance that there will be more.  Then again, that could be said for Clinton.

My point is simple.  This year is crazy.  Apparently, there are even people running around doing scary clown stuff.  Here's one of my all-time favorite musicians.  He's a better guitarist than anyone you've ever heard of, and often writes about creepy clowns.

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