Sunday, October 9, 2016

Donald Trump's chances after pussygate

So, you know we have to call this thing "pussygate," right?

Anyway, PredictWise currently puts Trump's chances at 13%, but let's head over to a more fun site-- PredictIt.  There, people are buying "shares" of Trump winning at 19 cents, to pay off at a dollar if Trump wins.  I use prediction markets a lot, but they do have a bias.  They overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events.  Why?  Who buys shares of unlikely events?  Gamblers.  People who enjoy the thought of winning by having bet on an unlikely event, and enjoy the risk itself.  We may be getting into that territory with a Trump victory.

So, what else is in that territory over at PredictIt?  Well, Mitch McConnell resigning his leadership position.  Then, Obama actually closing Gitmo.  How about North Carolina repealing its bathroom bill?

I could go on, and you can dig through the markets to find stuff.  The point is this:  prediction markets are very good for getting on the right side of 50/50, and calibrating within that range.  They get worse around the extremes because only gamblers buy shares of very unlikely events, messing with the prices.

What are Donald Trump's chances right now?  I don't know.  I still like to err on the side of uncertainty, given how batshit crazy this election is.  We have a debate tonight.  There is a high likelihood that someone will say "pussy."  This may be the first debate aired on a time delay so that the censors can bleep things.  Is there anything Donald Trump can do to dig himself out of the hole he's in?  Should I have phrased that differently?

Right now, I don't know what would have to happen for Trump to win, but this year in particular, there are no certainties.

Oh, and anyone bothered by my use of the term, "pussygate," read this old post.  Trump boasts about sexual assault.  That's the problem, not the word.

3 comments:

  1. At this point, I'm not even going to write anything.
    And you won't respond to that nothing.
    And life will continue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And now I quote from Hans Gruber, re: Alexander the Great, "and when he saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer."

      Delete
    2. And I quote from John McClain: "Yippee ki yay, mother fucker."

      Delete