Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Pre-debate thoughts

Trump is losing.  Badly.  The election is mostly out of his hands, as I've been saying.  In order to win, he needs either a) the polls to be just wrong, or b) an intervening event.  However, tonight's debate is the last major event, so this is his last chance to try something.  Anything.  What will he try?  I have no clue.

But, when you have nothing, you have nothing to lose, so there is no such thing as risk.  That is why Trump has gone so far in his rhetoric lately.  Global conspiracies of bankers, and such.  Yeah...  Vaguely familiar ring to it?  From a strategic perspective, though, he has no reason to act conventionally.  In contrast, Clinton wants to play it safe and sit on her lead for the next 20 days.  The likelihood of any of Trump's last-ditch stunts working is minimal, but he might as well try.  I have no idea what he will try, but if I were advising him, I'd advise him to go wild here.

The real question:  Do we go full Godwin here?  Does Clinton make reference to the similarities between Trump's recent rhetoric and the Munich 1922 speech?  That would be pretty risky.  Clinton has no reason to risk the backlash.  But, that would be a spectacle.

Anyway, I got a little off topic with Sunday's bluegrass post, so here's this.


  1. Godwin's Law fails to address a world in which actual Nazis make arguments.

    1. What's the over/under on Trump accidentally referring to the bankers in that international conspiracy as "shylocks?"