Thursday, October 20, 2016

The debate confirms that Trump has lost

The obvious critical moment from the debate was when Chris Wallace asked if Trump would concede the day after the election, and Trump refused to say.  The thing is, this isn't news.  Trump is a conspiracy-minded, narcissistic whiner.  Also, kittens are cute, 2+2=4, and Bob Dylan doesn't deserve a Nobel (zing!).

Rather, let's talk about the fact that Wallace kept pressing the point.  Nothing emphasizes the fact that Trump is toast like the fact that the moderator had to keep asking him what he will do, sorry, would do if he loses.  If.  The question itself, repeated, takes away Trump's "I'm a winner" schtick.  It demonstrates, plainly for the audience, that the continuation of the campaign is little more than going through the motions at this point.

This is a waiting game.  The vote will be held in 19 days, except for the absentee ballots and early voting, which actually is a significant portion, and we shouldn't ignore that.  It is difficult to estimate the precise proportion since we don't know election day turnout, but the fact that Trump is as down in the polls as he is now, with ballots being mailed in today, makes Trump's hurdle that much more insurmountable.

And the moderator basically called him out on it by asking what he will do when, I mean if, if he loses.

Yes, a major terrorist attack could still occur.  Something could happen.  But, the window is closing. And, not only is Clinton's national lead holding at 6.4 points, her lead in New Hampshire has shot up to 6.8 points with some big new polling leads.  That plus having Colorado locked down, and she's got a pretty solid (almost granite solid- get it?) 270 electoral votes, so yes, Nate Silver is still full of shit, for those who want to go back through that series of posts.

Lesson?  When the moderator is pressing you on how you will react to a loss, you're toast.

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