Sunday, November 6, 2016

Re-reassessing Comey after Clinton is cleared again

Well, that was fast.  The FBI has reached the conclusion that every serious analyst knew they would-- nothing on the Weiner computer will lead to charges against Clinton because of how the FBI arrived at the decision not to prosecute in the first place.  Comey has sent another update.  So, let's revisit my earlier post reassessing Comey's motives for announcing the reopened investigation.  Re-re-re-re, Santayana or something.

In that post, I argued that the best predictor of Comey's behavior was whatever hurt Clinton the most, but was legally defensible.  Does Comey's sudden announcement change that?  There are two possibilities.

1) Comey is on the level, and he informed Congress at each step in good faith.  When the Weiner computer came to light, he informed Congress, and when the investigation wrapped up, he informed Congress.

2) Comey was trying to hurt Clinton's campaign at the last minute (or, rather, 11 days before the election), but the FBI agents assigned to review the emails were more efficient than he expected, and he knew he couldn't sit on the fact that the investigation had essentially concluded.  So, his unexpectedly efficient team forced his hand.

If scenario 2 is correct, then Comey screwed up by announcing the re-opened investigation about two days too early at least.  Either that, or he really was on the level, and just looks like a jackass right now.

For what it's worth, here is the prediction market on Comey resigning by the end of the year.  If Clinton wins on Tuesday, and her odds just went up bigly, as Trump would say, watch Comey's resignation numbers go up.

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