Wednesday, July 12, 2017

A reality check on Fredo Trump's admission of collusion

I guess we are supposed to call him "Fredo," although I see a minor problem with the analogy.  Vito knew what he was doing.  While Ivanka is clearly Michael, the analogy doesn't work if Michael is the only member of the family who isn't a fuckin' idiot.

Anyway, time for a reality check.  Stop asking whether this will finally be the thing that brings down Trump.  The number of times that question has been asked should give you a hint about the answer.  As I have written repeatedly, Trump's dead-man trigger protects him.  The party won't let him go down, no matter what, because he would drag everyone down with him.

Nevertheless, remember that the emails and the meetings only directly implicate Fredo.  Without a direct connection to the big guy with the tiny hands, there is nothing even potentially impeachable.  Jr. committed a crime.  He attempted to solicit campaign assistance from a foreign government.  And he was dumb enough to admit it, with his only defense being what I'm calling the Sideshow Bob defense.  That doesn't get at Trump himself, though.

Regardless, Fredo's daddy is the President.  Daddy would sooner fire Mueller than let his son get prosecuted, and worst-case-scenario, he can just issue a pardon.

Would it be a "scandal" if Trump fired Mueller to protect Fredo from prosecution?  In the sense that there would be outrage from Democrats and anyone else still capable of moral outrage, yes.  Would there be consequences?  No.  Why not?  The same reason I keep giving.  Congressional Republicans would assert that it's all a fake news liberal media elite conspiracy.  Yes, we have a few Republicans making stock statements about how they are "concerned," or some other such bullshit, but that's just posturing.  When push comes to shove, they will have one thing in mind-- the same thing I keep reminding you of-- the sequence of the 1974 and 1976 elections.

All of this comes back to one basic point:  If Republicans willingly turn on Trump, or his family, they are increasing their electoral losses, at least in the short term.  They will never knowingly accept electoral losses because it would mean handing power to Democrats.  Therefore, they will never turn on Trump.  No matter what he does.  I just don't see it.

Diogenes, where are you when we need you?  I think we have a lamp that needs to be replaced...

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