Thursday, March 1, 2018

Yesterday's meeting was interesting, but Trump has no influence on the House

Last week, I posted this, telling you to ignore everything Trump says about guns and gun control.  He is politically irrelevant on the topic.  Why?  The House of Representatives.

Yesterday, we had... that weird meeting.  Give it to Trump-- nothing is ever boring in politics with him as President.  Supposedly now he is moving left on gun control.  Of course, remember that, once upon a time, he was pro-choice, supported single-payer healthcare and all of that.  Trump doesn't have actual policy positions.  He just says whatever he thinks sounds good at the time.

What will happen?  Remember that even the small bill co-sponsored by John Cornyn to get states to update their criminal databases for background checks... here's the betting at PredictIt on that passing.  And that's with John Cornyn co-sponsoring it.

Why?  Like I wrote last week, Trump doesn't matter.  The House does.  John Cornyn doesn't even matter that much here.  Yes, he is the number-two Republican in the Senate (oh, how I wish I could write, "the new Number 2..." because, yes, I am obsessed), but he has no pull in the House.

The majority party in the House can block anything from getting a floor vote.  Easily.  Paul Ryan's position is precarious.  He is only there because the Freedom Caucus sacked Boehner.  If he alienates the Freedom Caucus, the same thing happens to him.  The Freedom Caucus has veto power.  They don't want anything to pass.  So, Paul Ryan can't let anything get to the floor.  Period.  Yesterday's meeting was a sideshow.  For Trump, it has the benefit of letting him position himself as more of a centrist, Democrats get to posture on their little hobby horse, but this is just spectacle.

The probability of passage for the "Fix NICS" bill is still below 50%.  Anything bigger than that (and it's a nothing bill)?  Ain't happenin'.

Don't watch the magician's lovely assistant.  Watch his hands.  (His tiny, tiny hands...)

And as a reminder, if you were going to whine about the NRA and their filthy, filthy money, here's my post on "villains."

And if you were going to whine about "common sense," here's my post on "common sense" claims in policy debates.

Sorry, gotta be me.


  1. All this is fine, but....

    Who is Number One?

    1. YOU... are Number 6!
      Or, was that... You are, Number 6!