Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Democrats have no cards to play against Kavanaugh

As battle lines are drawn for Kavanaugh's confirmation, it is worth remembering that Democrats have no cards to play, and the battle is over.  It's a done deal.  This isn't a fight.  Yes, there will be meetings and hearings, and all of that, but as I keep writing, that's all theater.  Here's how the theater goes.

Basically, Kavanaugh will commit plagiarism, which is ironic since Trump's last appointee was an actual, literal plagiarist.  With Kavanaugh, I'm only writing metaphorically.  Still, every nominee follows a script, particularly on the Republican side.  Platitudes about ruling based on the Constitution rather than personal beliefs, because that latter thing is what everyone who disagrees with me does.  More platitudes about respect for precedent, in order to convince that dupe, Susan Collins, that he looooooves Roe v. Wade, combined with some other generic and vague statements about the need to overturn rulings when they are truly horrendous, frequently referencing Plessy, in order to hint to right that, no really, he'll overturn Roe.  Basically, do that while citing lots and lots of precedent in a sufficiently bland manner, and it's a done deal.  He could literally say the exact same things that Plagiarist-Gorsuch said, and nobody would notice.  And, since Plagiarist-Gorsuch is a plagiarist anyway, there would be some symmetry to it.

The Senate is 51-49, but McCain won't be there unless necessary.  However, if McConnell needs to wheel his dying corpus/corpse into the Senate chamber... That.  Will.  Happen.  Without him there, the Senate is 50-49.  McConnell can lose every Democrat, as long as he keeps every Republican.  If one flips, though, that would be 50 no votes to 49 yes votes, and Kavanaugh sinks.  However, Collins and Murkowski are going to vote yes, like good, little Republicans, just like I've been telling you.  If you have been paying attention to recent rhetoric, you understand this.  Even if Collins changed her mind, McConnell brings in McCain's hospital bed, IV-drip and all.  And McConnell can probably get at least one Democrat.  Right now, betting is 3-1 that Manchin votes yes, with similar odds for Donnelly and Heitkamp.

Beating Kavanaugh means pulling back Manchin, Donnelly and Heitkamp, then getting Collins and Murkowski because if it comes down to that, McCain's bare-ass hospital gown makes an appearance on the Senate floor.  I'm pretty sure it violates their rules for attire, but who's gonna arrest him?

It's over.  What do the Democrats do now?  They plan for 2018.  And 2020, but really, that hinges on things like the economy anyway.  Democrats have no cards to play.  Well, there's court-packing, the next time they get unified control, and yes, I've been on this for a long time.

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